How long does a system like yours survive?
Win rate and reward-to-risk describe the average outcome. They say nothing about the order the wins and losses arrive in — and that order is what closes accounts. This runs your numbers through 10,000 random sequences and counts how often you'd be finished.
Your system
Ruin threshold
Drawdown at which you stop or breach
Load a preset
—
—
chance of ruin
—
Sixty sampled equity paths
— hit ruin
— survived
— median
TRADE 0RUIN LINETRADE 200
Ruin risk by position size
Same edge, same horizon — only the stake changes. Risk of ruin does
not rise in a straight line with size; it accelerates.
Worst run you should expect
A losing streak is not evidence your system broke. Plan for the
streak you will actually meet, then size so it is survivable.
Use your own numbers, not guesses
The AXIOM Trader's Desk
and Axiom Trade Journal measure your real win rate and R multiple from MetaTrader 5,
then size every position against them.
Educational and analytical tools only. Not financial advice. This is a statistical
model of randomly ordered outcomes at the parameters you enter — it does not predict your
results, and nothing here places, manages or recommends trades. Real markets add slippage,
gaps, correlation and changing conditions that a simulation cannot capture. Trading carries
risk of loss; past results are not a forecast.